Ding-a-ling. Financial Santa is in the house, but does he also bring rate cuts?
Unlike the real Santa, who brings his gifts late in the year, the Financial Santa, tends to begin a couple of months earlier.
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Don’t write off 2023 just yet
After 2022, the annus horribilis, it was widely assumed that 2023 would be a rebound year. However, up to the end of October, a 60/40 (MSCI World/Bloomberg Barclays Global Bond Index), was up a mere 2%, very far from the average uplift of 5% and 9% experienced in a rebound year.
No end in sight
Last Friday, UK GDP came in a tick higher than expected. In this case, a 0.2% surprise is by no means insignificant. The fact that the economy was able to eke out growth in the face of already aggressive interest rate hikes will galvanise the Bank of England’s zeal to continue tightening monetary policy.
Know when to take risks, and when not to
‘Providence protect idiots’ Otto Von Bismarck once exclaimed. I’m never quite sure what the direct intentions of the Almighty are. Bismarck, a Prussian Prince and one of the great leaders of the 19th century, might have had a more direct line of communication with the powers that be than I do.
All quiet on the Western Front. Perhaps too quiet.
It was an undeniably good week for markets. US equities rose, breaking their ceiling, which held from September. This was down to two simple reasons: The closing in of a debt ceiling deal and a perhaps slightly more dovish Fed.
Weekly Market Update: War Drives Market Sentiment
US stocks started the week strongly as reports appeared to show that a ceasefire deal, in which Ukraine would abandon its drive for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees and potential EU membership, could be possible. However, the mood soured in the middle of the week as Pentagon officials cast doubts on reports that Russia was scaling back operations in Kyiv. Nevertheless, major indices in developed markets ended higher at the end of the week, with the US stock market ending +0.7% higher, the UK stock market rising +0.8%, and European stocks gaining +2.4% in Sterling terms. Emerging markets also fared well, despite China imposing large scale lockdowns on Shanghai and showing weakening manufacturing data, as investors appear to expect that Beijing will take measures to support the economy and financial markets. UK and US bond yields retreated, ending the week at 1.61% (down 8.4 bps) and 2.39% (down 9.8 bps) respectively. Oil fell by -13.9% as Joe Biden ordered the release of 180 million barrels of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, ending the week at just under $100 per barrel.
Weekly Market Update: Ukraine Tensions Continue to Unnerve Markets
Markets were whipsawed last week as traders scrambled to interpret manage the risk of conflict in Ukraine on top of newly released minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting. How have markets reacted? Find out here...
Monthly Market Update: She is tossed in the waves, but does not sink
A hawkish Fed has sent volatility spiking, marking one of the most memorable weeks in forty years. On average, for the past five days the S&P 500’s gap between the day’s highs and the day’s lows hit 3.4%. Since 1982, only 2% of all five-day periods have been more volatile. The most important thing for […]
Weekly Market Update: Bonds Fall as Investors Escalate Rate-Hike Expectations
Market Update Equity markets posted overall gains last week after another volatile session. US stocks rose by 0.5% in GBP terms on rising energy prices, and a generally strong earnings season in which 76% of companies beat expectations. Earnings of mega-cap names had a large impact on the wider US equity market, as a 26.4% […]
Weekly Market Update: Global Stocks Fall Sharply As Geopolitical Tensions Mount
Market Update: US stocks fell by -5% last week in their worst 7-day decline since March of 2020, as fears of interest rate rises and increased geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Technology stocks in the US were hit particularly hard, falling into correction territory after having reached all time highs several weeks ago. […]
Monthly Market Update: Can the Fed be the answer to everything?
For a long time our central theme has been the disconnect between the real and the financial economy. Nowhere has this disconnect been mademore clear than in the Fed’s communication in August. The bullish economic outlook clashed directly with a dovish approach on interest rates.Actions speak louder than words, however, and it is becoming apparent […]
You can relax. The Fed has no intention to fight inflation (yet).
With inflation pressures coming mostly from the supply side, there is little the Fed can do to curb it. Interest rates are tools best used to cool down the economy during a mature, credit-driven economic boom. They are not designed for a recovering economy and much less for one still under the threat of a pandemic.
Quarterly Investment Newsletter: Summer 2021
Developed markets’ continued vaccine rollouts and a corresponding easing of lockdown measures buoyed equity markets during the second quarter despite already starting the period at elevated levels. Global stock markets rose by over +6% in Sterling terms and whilst the US was again the best performing region, European and UK stocks were not far behind. […]
The latest position of the ECB
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, gave a press conference on 10 June following a meeting of the ECB’s governing council. Her speech contained some unequivocally positive observations about the European economy, lamenting a bounce back in services activity, continued strong manufacturing activity and improving consumer spending, all against a backdrop of strong global demand. […]
Is gold a good hedge against inflation?
The problem with gold is that experience does not necessarily support theory. A quick look at the numbers suggests that although gold is widely perceived as an inflation hedge, reality suggests otherwise.
Weekly Market Update: Markets Provide Contrasting Inflation Signals
Market Update It was a steadily positive week for equity markets last week, with all major regions gaining in Sterling terms. Emerging markets equities were the strongest performing, up +1.8%, while Yen strength saw Japanese equities returning +1.2%. Energy was the strongest performing sector globally, as oil prices reached their highest level in two years. […]
Weekly Market Update: Stock gains muted despite signs of a trade deal
Global equities were positive last week, however energy stocks fell precipitously on plummeting oil prices, so that overall in local terms returns were +0.8%. Positive sentiment was boosted as the off-again, on-again negotiations between the US and China appear to be on-again, while a revised estimate of Q3 GDP showed the US economy expanded at […]
Monthly Market Update: New Equity Highs as Economies Tread Water
Markets welcomed signs of an easing in geopolitical tensions in October, with risk assets generally outperforming traditional safe havens. The US and Chinese authorities moved closer to agreeing a partial deal on trade, while the UK once again edged back from the precipice of a no-deal Brexit. Global central banks reiterated their dovish stances and […]
Weekly Market Update: Global Equities Rise, but Sterling Rallies More
Market Update Global stocks rose +0.7% in local currency terms, which translated into a -0.4% fall in Sterling terms. Returns were mixed in local terms, however were universally down in Sterling term as the currency rose +1.0% vs the US Dollar to just short of the $1.30 mark. Emerging Markets had a challenging week falling […]
Weekly Market Update: Bond yields rise, Pound rallies on potential Brexit “pathway”
Read our full Market Update Week 40 Global stocks gained throughout the week in local terms, however they fell in Sterling terms after the Pound rallied on news of a potential “pathway” to a Brexit deal. Global stocks fell -1.5% in Sterling terms, with the decline led by weak performance from US and Japanese equities; […]
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