Ding-a-ling. Financial Santa is in the house, but does he also bring rate cuts?

The global economy remains unbalanced as the pandemic disrupts global trade, supply chains and international relations. As a result, individual economies diverge and data is unpredictable and volatile.

We find ourselves in the midst of a once-in-a-decade paradigm shift for financial markets and the global economy. The first six months of the year have seen the worst equity performance in nearly a century. Already, average portfolio performance is the worst in twenty years, on par with the 2008 global financial crisis.

On the 23rd March 2020, the United Kingdom entered its first official lockdown in an attempt to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The initial uncertainty was catastrophic for the economy and many UK businesses were forced to cease trading as revenues plummeted to zero almost overnight.

The last quarter of the year saw some relief for investors who had been hit from all sides throughout 2022 as markets rallied on the belief that the economy was perhaps showing enough signs of stress to persuade central banks to consider slowing, and then stopping interest rate rises.

The third quarter of the year saw markets start to second guess central banks’ resolve to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation. Expectations of a change in monetary policy gathered momentum and caused a rally in global equities of over +11% in a five week period. Alas this proved to be a short- lived bear market rally as central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, signalled their determination to stay the course with rate rises.

Having been absent for decades, the return of inflation is forcing market analysts to learn how to respond to rising interest rates and squeezes on the real purchasing power of consumers’ disposable income. As interest rates rise, the notion of ‘There Is No Alternative’ is diluted, and the prospects for a slowing economy increase, leaving valuations on risk assets vulnerable despite the recent falls.